Contributed by author, Julian Park, and republished here with permission. For more information, please contact Julien at julian@bcwinetrends.com
In 2016, Dr. Liz Thach MW published a list of “Hot Wine Trends” that aimed to capture the future of wine consumer behaviour. The industry was bracing for a sparkling boom, boxed wine battles, and a love affair with Sauvignon Blanc. Almost a decade later, we’ve pulled the BC data, opened a few bottles, and checked which of those prophecies aged well — and which were more fizzle than sizzle.
Spoiler alert: some trends are still going strong (hello, bubbles), while others… well, we’ll just say it was a nice try.
Was it forecasted? Not explicitly — but rosé was the sleeper hit no one saw coming.
What happened: Between 2016 and 2023, BC Rosé wholesale volume more than doubled, peaking at 40.9k L. Q3 consistently outpaced Q2 — the strongest seasonal indicator of “patio wine” status.
2024 and early 2025 show some softening, but volume remains historically high.
2016 Prediction: Sparkling wine — especially Prosecco — would pop in popularity.
What happened: It wasn’t just Prosecco. BC-made bubbly took off, with total wholesale value tripling from $7.8M in 2016 to $22.5M in 2024. Q3 dominates, but Q4 and Q1 growth shows year-round demand. From traditional method to pét‑nat, local producers have expanded styles and price points, making BC sparkling a fixture on both restaurant lists and home celebrations.
2016 Prediction: Consumers would pay more for better wine, especially in the $11–25 range.
2025 Reality: That’s… complicated. Inflation has lifted all price points, but BC wineries report softness in premium volume, particularly post-2023. Still, small-lot wines and estate labels with provenance continue to command high prices.
2016 Prediction: Sauvignon Blanc was the big riser, followed by Red Blends, Pinot Noir, and Cab Sauv.
2025 BC Take: Sauvignon Blanc is solid but hasn’t dethroned Chardonnay. Pinot Noir is BC’s flagship red. Red blends — especially GSM — are still hot. Cab Sauv is steady, but rarely a solo star.
2016 Prediction: U.S. consumers were turning to classic import regions.
2025 in BC: These imports remain popular in BC Liquor Stores. But the fundamental shift? BC drinkers are buying local — or “local-ish,” as the Crafted in BC trend shows. Even imported grapes are being turned into regional wines.
2016 Prediction: Non-glass formats would increase.
2025 Reality: Still niche. Cans have grown in retail (hello, beach wines), but restaurants and premium buyers still prefer 750ml glass.
The result? Many BC wineries skip alternative packaging entirely, since losing the VQA seal can hurt their credibility with restaurants, collectors, and export markets.
Originally published by Dr. Liz Thach MW, revisited in 2025 with a BC lens by Julian Park at BCWineTrends.com.