The Future is Bright for US Wine in 2017: Statistics from 2016 Paint Rosy Picture

Many of the statistics for 2016 US wine sales are in and the results are rosy. Optimism is high that 2017 will continue to see the small but steady growth pattern of previous years, at around 1 to 3% volume and 2 to 4% in value. According to Wines & Vines (2017), total US wine sales approached $60 billion in 2016, with an estimated $39.8 billion in sales from domestic wine and the remainder from imports.

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US Wine Consumption Positive in 2016

Hot trends continue in brisk sales of red blends, sparkling, and rose, with a surprising surge in sauvignon blanc sales in 2016 (Nielsen, 2017). Sangria continues to be a sought after wine choice at an estimated 9.3% volume increase (BW166, 2017). The most positive news, however, comes in the form of premiumization, with many Americans “buying up” and spending more money per bottle. The average bottle price is now $10, making the US wine market the largest in both volume and value (Nielsen, 2017).

Positive Stats for US Wine Industry in 2016

  • Revenues for US Wine Sales = estimated $39.8 billion, a 5% increase from 2015 (Wines & Vines, 2017)
  • Total US Wine Sales Revenue including imports = estimated $60 billion (Wines & Vines, & BW166, 2017)
  • Total Cases Shipped = 399 million, up 3% from 2015 (GFAWine, 2017)
  • Growth: 2016 is the 24th consecutive year of grown for US wine sales slide1

Imports Vs. Domestic Markets by Volume

  • Domestic Wine Sales = 67.1%
  • Imported Packaged = 25.4%
  • Imported Bulk = 7.5%

(Source: BW166, 2017)

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Wine Sales Channels

 Off-Premise – roughly 78.75% of US market with an average bottle price of $10. According to Nielsen (2017) volume grew at double digits in the following categories: $11-$14.99, $15-$19.99, $20-$24.99, $25+, but only at 3.2% for $8 -$11.99 and negative growth below $8 per bottle. Despite this, 58% of wine sold in the US is still under $8 per bottle, not including boxed wine.

On-Premise = estimated at 20% of the US market with an average bottle price of $40, but is still relatively flat with only .2% value growth and -1% volume. It is presumed the higher cost of wine at restaurants/bars compared to beer and cocktails, as well as other factors are creating this lack of growth. (BW166, 2017; Nielsen, 2017).

Direct to Consumer (DTC) = though still only 1.25% volume of the total US market, DTC is booming with 5 million cases shipped, an increase of 17.1% over 2015. Even more positive are the revenues at $2.33 billion, an increase of 18.5% over 2015 (Kirschenmann, 2017; ShipCompliant, 2017).

Amazing Fact: In the US, there are now 550,000 locations that sell wine, an increase of 120,000 outlets over the past ten years. Some of the innovative new locations to sell wine include bookshops, movie theaters and car washes. (Nielsen, 2017).

 Growth of US Wineries and Exports

  • Number of US Wineries in 2017 = 9,091 (Fisher, 2017), up 4% from 8702 wineries in 2016.
  • Five Largest Wine States by # of Wineries: California 4202, Washington = 747, Oregon, 713, NY = 385, Texas = 287
  • US Exports – $1.62 billion in 2016, up from 1% from 2015. Volume = 412.7 million liters or 45.9 million cases. (Wine Institute, 2017)

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US Consumers Continue to Embrace Wine

  • 120 million Americans drink wine – approx. 36% of 330 million (Nielsen, 2017).
  • Per capita global ranking = #42
  • Gender Percentage = 57% female and 43% male (Nielsen Spectra, 2016)
  • High Frequency Wine Drinkers = 38% drink weekly (Nielsen, 2017)
  • Largest Wine Consuming Generations = Millennials and Baby Boomers (Wine Market Council, 2016)
  • Americans continue to prefer wine and spirits over beer, even with popularity of craft beer (Nielson, 2017).

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 Hot Varietals and Trends Now and for 2017

The Five Most Popular Wine Varietals/Styles are 1) chardonnay, 2) cabernet sauvignon, 3) red blends, 4) pinot grigio, and 5) pinot noir (WBM, 2017). This is expected to continue in 2017, though chardonnay is not growing as fast as the other categories.

Sparkling Wines continue to sizzle with double digit growth. Prosecco leads at 17% of category with $12 – $20 as a sweet spot (Nielsen, 2017). There is room for additional sparkling in the market, as consumers are expected to crave more bubbles in 2017.

Rosé is still all the rage, with Provence rosés in the lead with a 64% dollar share. However, all price points over $5 per bottle are doing well (Nielsen, 2017), and expected to continue in 2017.

Sangria continues to surge with a 9.3% volume increase in 2016, though most Americans prefer to drink it in warmer months, so summer of 2017 should be positive for Sangria (BW166, 2017).

Sauvignon Blanc, especially from NZ, captured strong increases in both volume and dollar value, with expectations for increased sales in 2017 (Nielsen, 2017).

Innovation in wine containers, packaging and product will continue in 2017. For example, the introduction of wine in aluminum cans in 2015 was appealing to some consumer segments (Thach & Chang, 2016).

Premiumization – with a higher consumer confidence rating in 2017, it is expected that consumers will continue to trade up to more expensive wines.

Acquisitions and start-ups within the wine industry are expected to continue in 2017, even with higher interest rates (McMillan, 2017).

Sources:

BW166 (2017). Wine Imports and Exports Report. Available at: http://bw166.com/product/wine-import-export/
Fisher, C. (2017). Number of US Wineries Reaches 9,091. Wine Business Monthly, Jan. 2017, p. 72-77.
GFAWine. (2017). Total wine shipments to the US expanded 3% to 399 million cases in 2016.  Available at: https://www.gfawine.com/blog/1
Kirschenmann, E. (2017). State of the States: 2016 Banner Year for DTC Shipping. Winebusiness.com, Jan. 13, 2017. Available at: https://www.winebusiness.com/news/?go=getArticle&dataid=179038
McMillan, R. (2017). 2017 SVB Wine Report. Silicon Valley Bank. Available at: https://www.svb.com/wine-report/
Nielsen (2017). State of the Industry – What’s Selling. Presentation by Danny Brager at Unified Wine Symposium. Sacramento, CA: Jan. 25, 2017.
ShipCompliant (2017). 2017 Direct to Consumer Report. Available at: http://go.sovos.com/rs/485-CPP-341/images/DtC_17_012516_web.pdf
Thach, L. & Chang, K. (2016). Adventure, Tradition, and Semi-Sweet Wines Highlighted in 2016 American Wine Consumer Survey. Winebusiness.com, Dec. 6, 2016. Available at: https://www.winebusiness.com/news/?go=getArticle&dataid=177492
WBM (2017). Retail Sales Analysis – Off Premise Wine Sales up .08 Percent. Wine Business Monthly, Feb. 2017. P. 142.
Wine Institute (2017). California Wine Exports Reach Record $1.62 Billion in 2016. Feb. 14, 2017. Available at: https://www.wineinstitute.org/resources/pressroom/02142017
Wine Market Council (2016). Overview of US Wine Industry. Presentation by John Gillespie at 11th Annual Wine Market Council Research Conference on U.S. Wine Consumer Trends. Jan. 25, 2016. New York, NY.
Wines & Vines (2017). Domestic Wine Sales Nudge $40 Billion in 2016. Winesandvines.com. Jan. 13, 2017. Available at: https://www.winesandvines.com/template.cfm?section=widc&widcDomain=USwineSales
Photo Credit: Veer BLP0011526

 

Trends in the US Wine Industry in 2013 – Cautiously Optimistic

Liz Thach2Each year in January we are blessed with multiple reports on the state of the wine industry from such esteemed research bodies as Shanken’s Impact Databank, the Wine Marketing Council, Nielson, Silicon Valley Bank, and Unified.  This year the news is similar to 2012 in that most experts are cautiously optimistic of numbers and trends that continue to skew positive but without any large changes.  In general, the economy is better, but people are still cautious.

Wine Sales in the US

  • For the 19th year in a row wine sales have continued to grow in the US market, at a rate of 2.9% in 2012
  • The US is the largest wine consuming nation in the world with more than 100 million people now drinking wine, out of a total population of 316 million.
  • Per capita wine consumption in the US hit 3.08 gallons in 2012.
  • The US is  the world’s largest wine market in terms of revenue, with consumers buying more than 360 million cases of wine in 2012, up 2% from 2011.
  • In 2012 total wine sales in the US reached $34.6 billion, a 6% increase
    from 2011.
  • The US still imports almost 30% of all wine sold in the country.
  • Growth in on-premise wine sales is flat, but retail wine numbers are strong at $13.3 billion in 2012 (Nielson)
  • Online wine sales are finally coming into their own, with 74% of consumers purchasing wine from winery websites and 68% from Wine.com.  Wine e-commerce has grown 15% overall since 2011.
  • More wine is being sold in drug stores and other chains such as Walgreens and Dollar General.

US Wine Consumer Characteristics

  • Of all US wine consumers, 57% are now core (those who drink wine at least once a week or more often) and 43% are marginal (drink wine less often than once a week, but at least once a quarter).
  • In terms of gender, 55% of American wine consumers are women and 45% are men, with more men adopting wine over the last decade
  • People are drinking wine more often in different occasions and settings.
  • 80% of people talk about wine on Facebook and 40% chat about wine on Twitter.
  • Babyboomers are still spending the most on wine, but Millennials (ages 21 to 36) continue to adopt wine in high numbers with more than 15,000 per day coming of age.
  • The Hispanic population is growing very fast in the US with a forecasted population increase from 16% today to 30% by 2050.  There is a concern that wine is not doing enough to embrace this population, while beer and spirits are.

Trends in Wine

  • The hottest varietals are still moscato, malbec and sweet red blends.  Some producers are now experimenting with sweet white blends.
  • Chardonnay is still the most widely purchased wine varietal with cabernet sauvignon as second.  American consumers also still enjoy pinot grigio, sauvignon blanc and rose, but there have been further decreases in syrah and white zinfandel sales.
  • Hot new packaging trends include wine in 187ml bottles (16% increase) and tetra packs (27%  increase).  Pouches are also gaining traction.
  • Americans still enjoy buying wine from Argentina, New Zealand and Spain, but wine purchases have declined from Australia and Germany.
  • The sweet spot for wine pricing is $10 – $14.99.
  • Some wineries have suggested they need to raise prices due to a global grape shortage situation, but retailers are concerned that consumers are not yet ready for price increases.
  • Beer is growing faster than wine, with many consumers intrigued by beer’s new flavors, cider, malts, and artisan brews.  There is concern that wine needs to do something new, e.g. new varietals, new packaging, etc.