The Future is Bright for US Wine in 2017: Statistics from 2016 Paint Rosy Picture

Many of the statistics for 2016 US wine sales are in and the results are rosy. Optimism is high that 2017 will continue to see the small but steady growth pattern of previous years, at around 1 to 3% volume and 2 to 4% in value. According to Wines & Vines (2017), total US wine sales approached $60 billion in 2016, with an estimated $39.8 billion in sales from domestic wine and the remainder from imports.

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US Wine Consumption Positive in 2016

Hot trends continue in brisk sales of red blends, sparkling, and rose, with a surprising surge in sauvignon blanc sales in 2016 (Nielsen, 2017). Sangria continues to be a sought after wine choice at an estimated 9.3% volume increase (BW166, 2017). The most positive news, however, comes in the form of premiumization, with many Americans “buying up” and spending more money per bottle. The average bottle price is now $10, making the US wine market the largest in both volume and value (Nielsen, 2017).

Positive Stats for US Wine Industry in 2016

  • Revenues for US Wine Sales = estimated $39.8 billion, a 5% increase from 2015 (Wines & Vines, 2017)
  • Total US Wine Sales Revenue including imports = estimated $60 billion (Wines & Vines, & BW166, 2017)
  • Total Cases Shipped = 399 million, up 3% from 2015 (GFAWine, 2017)
  • Growth: 2016 is the 24th consecutive year of grown for US wine sales slide1

Imports Vs. Domestic Markets by Volume

  • Domestic Wine Sales = 67.1%
  • Imported Packaged = 25.4%
  • Imported Bulk = 7.5%

(Source: BW166, 2017)

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Wine Sales Channels

 Off-Premise – roughly 78.75% of US market with an average bottle price of $10. According to Nielsen (2017) volume grew at double digits in the following categories: $11-$14.99, $15-$19.99, $20-$24.99, $25+, but only at 3.2% for $8 -$11.99 and negative growth below $8 per bottle. Despite this, 58% of wine sold in the US is still under $8 per bottle, not including boxed wine.

On-Premise = estimated at 20% of the US market with an average bottle price of $40, but is still relatively flat with only .2% value growth and -1% volume. It is presumed the higher cost of wine at restaurants/bars compared to beer and cocktails, as well as other factors are creating this lack of growth. (BW166, 2017; Nielsen, 2017).

Direct to Consumer (DTC) = though still only 1.25% volume of the total US market, DTC is booming with 5 million cases shipped, an increase of 17.1% over 2015. Even more positive are the revenues at $2.33 billion, an increase of 18.5% over 2015 (Kirschenmann, 2017; ShipCompliant, 2017).

Amazing Fact: In the US, there are now 550,000 locations that sell wine, an increase of 120,000 outlets over the past ten years. Some of the innovative new locations to sell wine include bookshops, movie theaters and car washes. (Nielsen, 2017).

 Growth of US Wineries and Exports

  • Number of US Wineries in 2017 = 9,091 (Fisher, 2017), up 4% from 8702 wineries in 2016.
  • Five Largest Wine States by # of Wineries: California 4202, Washington = 747, Oregon, 713, NY = 385, Texas = 287
  • US Exports – $1.62 billion in 2016, up from 1% from 2015. Volume = 412.7 million liters or 45.9 million cases. (Wine Institute, 2017)

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US Consumers Continue to Embrace Wine

  • 120 million Americans drink wine – approx. 36% of 330 million (Nielsen, 2017).
  • Per capita global ranking = #42
  • Gender Percentage = 57% female and 43% male (Nielsen Spectra, 2016)
  • High Frequency Wine Drinkers = 38% drink weekly (Nielsen, 2017)
  • Largest Wine Consuming Generations = Millennials and Baby Boomers (Wine Market Council, 2016)
  • Americans continue to prefer wine and spirits over beer, even with popularity of craft beer (Nielson, 2017).

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 Hot Varietals and Trends Now and for 2017

The Five Most Popular Wine Varietals/Styles are 1) chardonnay, 2) cabernet sauvignon, 3) red blends, 4) pinot grigio, and 5) pinot noir (WBM, 2017). This is expected to continue in 2017, though chardonnay is not growing as fast as the other categories.

Sparkling Wines continue to sizzle with double digit growth. Prosecco leads at 17% of category with $12 – $20 as a sweet spot (Nielsen, 2017). There is room for additional sparkling in the market, as consumers are expected to crave more bubbles in 2017.

Rosé is still all the rage, with Provence rosés in the lead with a 64% dollar share. However, all price points over $5 per bottle are doing well (Nielsen, 2017), and expected to continue in 2017.

Sangria continues to surge with a 9.3% volume increase in 2016, though most Americans prefer to drink it in warmer months, so summer of 2017 should be positive for Sangria (BW166, 2017).

Sauvignon Blanc, especially from NZ, captured strong increases in both volume and dollar value, with expectations for increased sales in 2017 (Nielsen, 2017).

Innovation in wine containers, packaging and product will continue in 2017. For example, the introduction of wine in aluminum cans in 2015 was appealing to some consumer segments (Thach & Chang, 2016).

Premiumization – with a higher consumer confidence rating in 2017, it is expected that consumers will continue to trade up to more expensive wines.

Acquisitions and start-ups within the wine industry are expected to continue in 2017, even with higher interest rates (McMillan, 2017).

Sources:

BW166 (2017). Wine Imports and Exports Report. Available at: http://bw166.com/product/wine-import-export/
Fisher, C. (2017). Number of US Wineries Reaches 9,091. Wine Business Monthly, Jan. 2017, p. 72-77.
GFAWine. (2017). Total wine shipments to the US expanded 3% to 399 million cases in 2016.  Available at: https://www.gfawine.com/blog/1
Kirschenmann, E. (2017). State of the States: 2016 Banner Year for DTC Shipping. Winebusiness.com, Jan. 13, 2017. Available at: https://www.winebusiness.com/news/?go=getArticle&dataid=179038
McMillan, R. (2017). 2017 SVB Wine Report. Silicon Valley Bank. Available at: https://www.svb.com/wine-report/
Nielsen (2017). State of the Industry – What’s Selling. Presentation by Danny Brager at Unified Wine Symposium. Sacramento, CA: Jan. 25, 2017.
ShipCompliant (2017). 2017 Direct to Consumer Report. Available at: http://go.sovos.com/rs/485-CPP-341/images/DtC_17_012516_web.pdf
Thach, L. & Chang, K. (2016). Adventure, Tradition, and Semi-Sweet Wines Highlighted in 2016 American Wine Consumer Survey. Winebusiness.com, Dec. 6, 2016. Available at: https://www.winebusiness.com/news/?go=getArticle&dataid=177492
WBM (2017). Retail Sales Analysis – Off Premise Wine Sales up .08 Percent. Wine Business Monthly, Feb. 2017. P. 142.
Wine Institute (2017). California Wine Exports Reach Record $1.62 Billion in 2016. Feb. 14, 2017. Available at: https://www.wineinstitute.org/resources/pressroom/02142017
Wine Market Council (2016). Overview of US Wine Industry. Presentation by John Gillespie at 11th Annual Wine Market Council Research Conference on U.S. Wine Consumer Trends. Jan. 25, 2016. New York, NY.
Wines & Vines (2017). Domestic Wine Sales Nudge $40 Billion in 2016. Winesandvines.com. Jan. 13, 2017. Available at: https://www.winesandvines.com/template.cfm?section=widc&widcDomain=USwineSales
Photo Credit: Veer BLP0011526

 

Statistics on the US Wine Industry – 2011

428047_4187596921499_1003172458_n (1)As the 4th largest wine producing country in the world, the US wine industry has steadily increased in size and revenue over the past decade.  In 2010 the US became the leading wine consuming nation at 330 million cases (Wine Institute, 2011).  This equates to Americans drinking 3.96 billion bottles of wine in comparison to France’s record of 3.85 billion bottles (Press Democrat, 2011).  According to the Impact Databank Report, Americans spent more than $40 billion on wine in 2010, and wine consumption recorded its 17th annual increase in the US.  California, the largest wine producing state in the nation, currently accounts for 61% volume share of the US market (Wine Institute, 2011).

Wine Production in the US

Wine is produced in all fifty US states.  According to Wine Business Monthly (2012), the total number of wineries in the US reached 7,116 in 2011 showing a 9% increase from the previous year.  Of these, 6,027 are bonded wineries with a physical location, whereas the other 1,089 are virtual wineries.   California is the largest wine producing state with a current count of 3,458 wineries.  The next largest wine producing states are Washington, Oregon, New York, Virginia and Texas, respectively.

According to the US International Trade Association (2011), in 2010 grape production in the US was 6.86 million tons with 944,800 bearing acres.  The top 5 wine grape varieties grown in the US are Chardonnay, Cabernet Sauvignon, Zinfandel, Merlot, and Pinot Noir.  The highest price per ton of wine grapes in the US is Napa County with an average of $3,389 per ton paid in 2011(USDA, 2012).

Wine Consumers in the US

Of the more than 313,000 million inhabitants in the US, approximately 35% drink wine at a per capita rate of 3.03 gallons or 11.5 liters (Wine Market Council, 2012).  In terms of demographics (SVB, 2012), 69% are white, 14% Hispanic, and 11% African American, with the remainder 9% from other races.  The average age of the American wine consumer is 49, with Millennials, or those who fall between the ages of 21 and 34 making up 26% of wine consumers,  ages 35-44 at 19%, ages 45 to 54 at 21%, and those over 55 at 34%.  College degrees are held by 24% of American wine consumers.  Consumption rates are growing amongst Millennials and men.

Preferred varietals of Americans in terms of sales are chardonnay, which holds first place in the US, at 21% market share and cabernet sauvignon in second place at 15% (Nielsen, 2012).  Though sales are decreasing, merlot still holds third place, with pinot gris and pinot noir as fourth and fifth favorites, respectively.  Fastest growing categories are Moscato, Malbec, Riesling and sweet red blends.  The most popular price point in 2011 was the $9 – $11.99 category.  Some of the best selling brands include Sutter Home Moscato, Cupcake Chardonnay, Barefoot Pinot Grigio, Gnarly Head Zinfandel, Menage a Trois Red, and Gallo’s Apothic Red.

Americans also enjoy drinking imported wine, with 1 out of every 4 bottles sold from a foreign country.  In 2010, the top imported wines countries were (ITA, 2011):  Italy (30%), France (24%), Australia (14%), Chile (7%), Argentina (6%), and Spain (6%).  These accounted for 87% of the total value of imported US wines.

Future Prospects

In general, the future prospects for continued wine growth in the US market are positive.  American consumers are adopting wine at a strong level with 17 years of continued growth (Wine Spectator, 2011) and prospects for this trend to continue.  On the negative side, the US wine industry has experienced two years of poor weather resulting in lower crop loads.  This indicates a looming shortage in US wine supply, which will require supplements from foreign sources